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Small-Cap Automobile Stocks

The Automatic Automobile
November 15, 2006


Wired reports that Rensselaer Polytechnic researchers have recently made important progress toward computer-driven vehicles.

This is going to start impacting your driving experience sooner than you think, and is but one of a series of changes that will lead us to a totally transformed system of transportation in the next 10 to 15 years.

In an ongoing experiment, George List and his team have been able to link as many as 200 cars traveling in close proximity to each other into a kind of electronic grid.

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The system tracks not only where the cars are, but also how they're moving. This is all mapped in real-time and, when the test vehicles can pursue a better route, the system instantly detects it and suggests the change.

Rensselaer's Center for Infrastructure and Transportation Studies links all of the participating vehicles through global positioning system (GPS) devices in cars. The systems are connected wirelessly.

The system can even tell drivers what to do in real time. For example, "Turn right at the next exit."

Researchers believe that similar systems can work in cities across the United States via dedicated AM radio stations and cellular telephones. It will work in conjunction with a panoply of sensors to be placed in pavement, pole-mounted cameras and even traffic signs.

The Rensselaer system requires only a GPS system, a handheld computer such as a personal digital assistant (PDA) and a means of communicating with the central computer system. With that in place on all of the vehicles, everything can be handled automatically.

Once per minute, each vehicle automatically updates the central system with its whereabouts and trajectory. Surprisingly, this is apparently enough to keep the system functioning efficiently in most circumstances.

A pattern of traffic up to a 40-mile radius can be maintained this way. Although the system displays a map of the traffic pattern on the PDA, the driver can instead rely on the automated voice for directions. There is no need to look at the screen.

The system is really an evolutionary improvement to the GPS-based systems such as OnStar and Mapopolis that are today available to drivers. The difference is, it can adjust in real time to important conditions such as congestion and accidents.

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Similar approaches being explored include that of AirSage, an Atlanta company that uses the GPS-like qualities of cellular phones to track traffic patterns. The Virginia Department of Transportation has agreed to a pilot study in Norfolk, the city of my birth.

Other cities, including San Francisco and Houston, offer real-time maps of traffic density to drivers.

A major potential advantage of the Rensselaer system is cost. Since nearly all cell phones are migrating toward integration with PDA-type features, within the next several years it will be possible to link huge numbers of drivers in such a system with negligible out-of-pocket expense.

The locations of such technology go well beyond what most people imagine. For example, if such technology were integrated into the car, it could practically eliminate theft by enabling authorities to identify the location of a stolen vehicle.

It could also be used to automate payment of tolls and even purchases such as gasoline, which are presently being done with magnetic stripe cards. This could integrate such functions with the credit card of your choice.

You wouldn't have to do anything but authorize the purchase, confirming the correct amount by pressing "OK" on your telephone keypad.

By the year 2015, integration of such devices into automobile driving systems should enable truly automated driving experiences. By then, the typical car will be self-diagnosing so it's always either functioning correctly or en route to the repair shop.

At that point, there's no good reason the car's drive train can't be seamlessly interfaced with a reliable automated driving system. After all, if the system can reliably tell you when to turn, why can't it simply direct the car to do so?

While a lot of people will no doubt feel uncomfortable turning over their driving and their safety and artificially intelligent robotic systems such as this, robots are about to become a lot more ubiquitous. And that will help win acceptance for the in an ever-increasing number of tasks.

In addition, insurance premiums are sure to plunge for people who let the systems do the driving, because the incidence of serious accidents will be much lower. That will motivate a lot of otherwise recalcitrant drivers to reconsider their antiquated driving habits.

All of this will, in turn, lead us ever closer to the next stage of transportation: Flying cars à la The Jetsons. I have discussed such cars previously in this space and am tracking several small public companies now developing the technology and systems to make this a reality sometime in the second decade of this century.

To your profitable future,
Jonathan Kolber

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Jonathan Kolber is a noted technology analyst and entrepreneur and has co-founded the company behind the disposable DVD movies offered by Disney and other studios... <click here for full bio>

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